On 16 November, Chile will head to the polls for presidential and congressional elections that could mark a decisive shift in the country’s political and economic trajectory. After four years under President Gabriel Boric - characterised by fiscal deterioration, rising debt, sluggish growth and persistent insecurity - many view this vote as pivotal for restoring market confidence and reviving private investment. 

Eight candidates are officially in the race, but only three are seen as serious contenders: José Antonio Kast from the far right, Evelyn Matthei from the centre-right, and Jeanette Jara, representing the left. Chile will also renew the entire Chamber of Deputies and half the Senate, outcomes critical for determining the next administration’s policy direction. 

Chile’s economy has stagnated over the past decade, growing just 2 per cent annually compared with 4 per cent in the previous one. Much of the slowdown reflects gridlock between the executive and Congress. For investors, a right-leaning presidency with a supportive legislature represents the most market-friendly outcome. The right currently holds 52 per cent of the Chamber and 54 per cent of the Senate. Any improvement in these figures, paired with a conservative presidency, could mark a clear break from recent policy paralysis. 

“Chile’s institutional framework, with a proper separation of powers and a relatively balanced parliament, suggests radical changes are unlikely,” a senior advisor from a public electoral institution explained. “A moderation in the rhetoric of the main candidates also makes it plausible that public policies will not undergo major transformations.” 

Among the leading contenders, Jeanette Jara faces the steepest path to the presidency. Her affiliation with the Communist Party and proximity to the unpopular Boric administration (whose approval remains below 30 per cent) make her chances slim. As a former presidential adviser noted, “The consensus in Chile is that Jara has no chance of winning.” 

Still, her proposals matter for market sentiment. Jara’s focus on a “living wage” and stronger domestic demand has raised concerns among business sectors about higher labour costs and heavier regulation. In mining, she supports industrialisation with state involvement but has backed away from expropriation. In infrastructure, she favours greater public investment for social integration, while in energy she promotes climate goals alongside expanded public control. 

The real contest lies between Kast and Matthei, the two opposition candidates expected to reach the runoff. “From a market perspective, the most business-friendly scenario would be a victory by Matthei or Kast,” the senior advisor noted. 

“From a market perspective, the most business-friendly scenario would be a victory by Matthei or Kast.”

Senior advisor for a public electoral institution, Chile

Matthei’s platform presents the state as facilitator and regulator. Her programme seeks to attract private capital through stable rules, institutional modernisation and more concessions, especially in infrastructure and logistics. In energy, she supports a diversified matrix with natural gas as a transitional source and strong backing for renewables and “green gases.” 

Kast’s platform is more ambitious and controversial. He proposes deeper liberalisation, including concessions for lithium extraction, auditing state-owned Codelco and radically simplifying environmental and sectoral processes. While this could spur investment, it carries political and social risks. His plan to cut public spending by six billion dollars in the first 18 months has been criticised as unrealistic, undermining fiscal credibility. 

Both candidates have focused on Chileans’ top concerns: insecurity and unemployment. “The race is now between Kast and Matthei,” said the former adviser. “Although expectations favour Kast, both are viewed as pragmatic leaders focused on economic reactivation and restoring order.” 

While the presidency will set the tone, Congress will ultimately determine the scope of reform. “It will be the characteristics of Congress that determine how far the next government can advance its programme,” the former adviser added. “There are also laws and regulations not being properly enforced, an area where the next administration could make an impact through ministries and public agencies.” 

“It will be the characteristics of Congress that determine how far the next government can advance its programme.”

A former adviser to presidential candidates, Chile

The memory of the 2019 protests still looms large, though “the likelihood of new unrest on that scale appears low,” remarked the electoral advisor. The demonstrations, sparked by a metro fare hike but driven by deep inequality, became Chile’s largest social unrest in decades and led to an abortive constitutional reform effort. “The left is unlikely to enjoy the same level of support, given how damaging the previous violence proved,” commented an expert. 

The question of a new constitution has largely faded. After two failed attempts in 2022 and 2023, public scepticism dominates and another rewrite appears improbable. 

“For global investors, this shift suggests Chile will soon offer a more investment-friendly environment,” the former presidential adviser remarked. “It is unlikely the right-wing candidates will be more radical than they have already proposed, given public concerns and the government’s poor reputation.” 

Chile is entering a new political cycle and investors should expect a gradual but meaningful reorientation toward market stability, pragmatic governance and renewed growth. The balance of power between the presidency and Congress will be decisive, but the direction of travel is towards policy normalisation, institutional rebuilding and an environment once again favourable to investment.