In 2023, Argentina threw out the old rulebook. After nearly twenty years of Kirchnerist dominance, voters took a gamble on Javier Milei, who promised to slash corruption and rescue a nation drowning in debt, inflation and distrust.  

His election was less a routine transfer of power than a collective cry of “enough,” a bet on radical change over cautious continuity. Now, two years on, with mid-term elections just around the corner, the country is once again at a turning point, weighing Milei’s bruising record, his unfinished reform agenda and whether the gamble is paying off. 

From the outset, Milei faced a daunting challenge with limited representation in Congress. His party entered government without the numbers needed to pass major legislation easily, forcing him to rely on negotiation, compromise or executive decrees. Nearly two years later, that obstacle remains unchanged. Mid-term elections will be held on 26th October, with 127 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 Senate seats up for renewal.  

“It is now believed that in October the government will struggle to secure a meaningful presence in Congress,” stated a senior portfolio manager at a large advisory firm. “It is anticipated that the government will lose” and for Milei, this means that even if his bloc gains seats, it will likely not be enough to strengthen his legislative hand in any meaningful way. 

“It is now believed that in October the government will struggle to secure a meaningful presence in Congress.”

Senior portfolio manager at a large advisory firm, Argentina

Recent electoral results underline this weakening position. In the September 2025 legislative elections in Buenos Aires Province, Milei’s party had been forecast to trail the opposition by around five percentage points. Instead, “the final result was a 14 point loss.” The outcome rattled Milei’s administration, signalling a sharper-than-expected erosion of public support just months ahead of the mid-terms. The senior portfolio manager warned, “Milei will likely have to moderate his aggressive tone in order to secure support for legislative initiatives with an eye toward re-election.” 

The political landscape has shifted and the government’s image has deteriorated significantly. At the heart of the dissatisfaction lies Argentina’s stagnant economy, as an advisor mentioned, “The key indicator that has yet to recover is economic activity, which continues to weigh heavily on the government.” 

On fiscal matters, however, Milei has delivered on his promises with remarkable consistency. From day one, the government pursued aggressive spending cuts, slashing more social benefits than any administration in recent memory. The results are striking with a fiscal surplus of 1.1 percent of GDP so far in 2025, compared with deficits of 4 to 5 percent that dominated the past decade. While applauded by investors for restoring discipline, the cuts have deepened social discontent.  

Moreover, the government has raised real interest rates to prevent currency speculation and avoid direct intervention in the exchange market. As the portfolio manager remarked, “This move has also had a severe impact on economic activity, and the effects are now becoming visible. This is expected to change after the October elections.” And in fact, as another source confirmed, “Interest rates did fall following the election. After peaking between 50–55%, they now stand closer to 30–35%, offering modest relief to businesses and consumers.”

Privatisation, a central pillar of Milei’s 2023 campaign, has meanwhile receded in importance. Initially, his administration proposed a list of 120 state-owned companies for potential sale. That number quickly shrank to 41 and finally to just 8, which were approved under the 2024 Bases Law. But political and market realities have curtailed momentum. “The market has dropped by 50 percent in USD terms since June. The right time to sell was earlier. At current prices, privatisation no longer makes much sense and will likely be put on hold.” The source added, “If any assets are sold, it will be out of necessity and to bring in foreign currency.” 

“The market has dropped by 50 percent in USD terms since June... At current prices, privatisation no longer makes much sense and will likely be put on hold.”

Senior portfolio manager at a large advisory firm, Argentina

The prospects for significant privatisation revenues are limited. As one analyst explained, “The government owns Transener, holding 50 percent of the company, which is valued at around USD 400 million - an amount that doesn’t move the needle. YPF is not going to be sold. There’s talk of selling Aerolíneas Argentinas for USD 1 billion, but it’s unlikely to attract serious bids. There are rumours about Banco Nación, but nothing concrete. Through the auctions of electricity assets, they might raise around USD 500 million.” Even in a best-case scenario, “Altogether, they could potentially raise USD 3–4 billion, but this no longer seems to be a priority for the government. The only initiatives currently moving forward are in the electricity sector and some toll road concessions.” 

As Milei approaches the midpoint of his presidency, Argentina is torn between fiscal achievement and social strain, between promises of radical reform and the limits of political reality. His government has scored undeniable wins on the budget front, but economic stagnation and social costs weigh heavily. With mid-terms set to determine whether his agenda can move forward or grind to a halt, the next few weeks will be decisive.  

For a president elected on bold promises, the coming months will test whether Milei can adapt his strategy, moderate his tone and build enough political consensus to survive - even perhaps thrive - in the turbulent waters of Argentine politics.