Mexico’s electricity sector has a plan! – one shaped by a renewed attempt to impose coherence, predictability and long-term direction on a system that has spent years navigating regulatory swings. The Ministry of Energy (“SENER”) has introduced a sweeping development blueprint - the Plan de Desarrollo del Sector Eléctrico (“PLADESE”) – which seeks to build a binding planning framework capable of strengthening the industry while bringing greater transparency to its operations. A deliberate push to reassert control over the sector and guide it toward a more modern and sustainable electricity network. 

At the heart of PLADESE is a detailed diagnosis of the electricity system, long-term scenario planning for 2025–2039, and a set of investment priorities focused on expanding and upgrading the national grid. This has already produced one crucial conclusion: the National Electricity System (“SEN”) requires an immediate infusion of 5,970 MW in additional capacity. According to SENER, the demand can be met through 3,790 MW of solar photovoltaic power and 2,180 MW of wind capacity, projects that would be strategically distributed across six regions.  

To execute this expansion, SENER has opened the process to private entities – Mexican or foreign, including those with no prior experience in similar calls – to propose new generation projects of at least 0.7 MW for SEN interconnection. However, each proposal must satisfy seven regulatory criteria: contribution to demand and accessibility, reliability and continuity of supply, sectoral efficiency, support for energy transition, alignment with national planning priorities, energy justice and technological innovation. The breadth of the criteria underscores the government’s ambition to ensure that new capacity not only adds megawatts but also strengthens system resilience and equity. 

An energy sector specialist argued that “tighter control over energy generation sends negative signals to the market and discourages private investment.” He continued, “However, objectively speaking, this is not a major shift, considering that before the reform the State already held a 51.3 percent share in generation.” The state’s decision to cap private participation at 46 percent (retaining 54 percent for itself) reinforces this narrative. “The measure faced resistance, particularly because there was some hope that President Sheinbaum appeared more open to private investment,” noted an energy company consultant. “In the end, it turns out that, at least in the energy sector, continuity will prevail.” The consultant suggested, “The investment landscape will resemble that under AMLO: cautious, with essentially the same players.” 

“Tighter control over energy generation sends negative signals to the market and discourages private investment.”

Energy sector specialist, Mexico

Still, regulatory continuity is not the only concern shaping investor behaviour. The deeper source of hesitation is institutional trust. According to a sector specialist, “The main concern is not the State’s dominance but the uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court’s actions. Investment of all kinds is somewhat stagnant due to low confidence that the new court will act impartially… there is close attention on how the National Energy Commission will move forward.” In a sector defined by large capital commitments and long horizons, uncertainty at the judicial level can matter as much as the ownership rules. 

“The main concern is not the State’s dominance but the uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court’s actions.”

Energy sector specialist, Mexico

Despite this cautious climate, the open call under PLADESE is providing a glimmer of optimism. “There is an open call giving priority to renewable energy projects. So far, it seems that interested parties are entering with enthusiasm, but cautiously, managing expectations.” The specialist expanded, “We will truly see whether this has generated significant private-sector interest after 10 December, when the selection results are announced.” Much will depend on how transparent and predictable the permitting and interconnection processes prove to be, particularly as firms navigate the Single Window for Strategic Projects in the Energy Sector (Ventanilla Única para Proyectos Estratégicos del Sector Energético, “VUPE”) platform and the National Centre for Energy Control’s (Centro Nacional de Control de Energía, “CENACE”) technical studies. 

The plan’s reliance on mixed public-private schemes reflects a broader trend. These models “are attractive because they allow public-private collaboration to continue… it’s the best option available,” remarked the energy consultant. Yet, “they can lend themselves to favouritism and the exclusion of smaller firms.” Whether PLADESE ultimately strengthens competition or consolidates established actors will be a defining test for Mexico’s energy governance. 

What is clear is that Mexico is attempting to chart a more structured and future-oriented path for its electricity sector. PLADESE may not radically alter the balance between public and private roles, but it does aim to clarify the rules of engagement – and in a sector long marked by volatility, predictability itself could become a powerful investment signal.