Commodities
A handful of magic beans
Latin America’s growing influence in the global cocoa market.
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The global cocoa industry is navigating a period of significant disruption, combining climate-related challenges and shifting market dynamics. Major producers in West Africa, particularly Ivory Coast and Ghana, which supply approximately 70% of the world’s cocoa, face severe production difficulties.
These challenges, primarily driven by unpredictable weather patterns, prolonged dry seasons and rising temperatures, have resulted in a marked decline in cocoa yields, opening a sweet window of opportunity for Latin American countries.
Ecuador is particularly well-positioned to capitalise on these shifts, with its cocoa production reaching around 454,000 tonnes in 2023, contributing significantly to its GDP. Although production is anticipated to decline slightly to 430,000 tonnes in 2024, the country remains a key player in the global cocoa market. The top spot for the largest cocoa distributor in Latin America “often shifts between Peru and Ecuador each year,” according to the owner of a superfoods importing business.
Similarly, Peru, which exported cocoa beans valued at USD 194 million in 2023, is emerging as a strong competitor. Peru's key export markets include the Netherlands, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia and the United States, underscoring the global demand for its high-quality cocoa. The agricultural sector in Peru, which includes cocoa farming, supports the livelihoods of over 50,000 smallholder farmers, emphasising its socio-economic importance.
“From May 2025 the price [of cocoa] will converge towards 5,000-6,000 [per tonne].”
Owner of a Superfoods importer based in California, US
The Dominican Republic, known for producing some of the highest-quality organic cocoa, also benefits from the shifting market dynamics. In recent years, the Dominican Republic has produced approximately 85,000 tonnes of cocoa annually, with organic varieties comprising nearly 40% of this output. Meanwhile, Mexico, although not a top global producer, is witnessing steady growth in its cocoa industry. In 2023, Mexico’s cocoa production was around 29,000 tonnes, a 5% increase from the previous year, with the state of Tabasco alone accounting for nearly 70% of the national output.
As production challenges continue in West Africa, cocoa prices have surged. In January 2023, cocoa was priced at approximately USD 2,300 per metric tonne. By mid-2024, this figure had skyrocketed to around USD 12,000 per tonne due to supply constraints and rising global demand. This represents a staggering 421% increase in just 18 months. Our source “believes that from May 2025 the price will converge towards 5,000-6,000 [per tonne],” dependent on various factors such as speculative trading, seasonal demand fluctuations and the ongoing supply issues in West Africa.
A superfoods importer based in California highlighted, “Not only is the production of cocoa beans important, but the real value lies in the derivatives, such as butter, powder, cocoa sultanas etc.” The importer continued, “For me, the big business is there when you deliver the derivatives because if you sell only the cocoa beans, in the end, you are ‘giving’ the business to someone else.”
“Not only is the production of cocoa beans important, but the real value lies in the derivatives, such as butter, powder, cocoa sultanas etc”
Owner of a Superfoods importer based in California, US
Latin American cocoa producers are also well-positioned to tap into the growing global demand for ethical and sustainable products. For instance, Ecuador and Peru have made significant strides in promoting organic and fair-trade cocoa, which are increasingly sought after by consumers in Europe and North America. The organic cocoa market alone is expected to grow by 6.2% annually, reaching USD 1.36 billion by 2027. However, the US-based importer disagreed, “The price of organic cocoa has risen so much that people are simply no longer interested in buying organic products.”
None-the-less, these countries face challenges, particularly in meeting the stringent new regulations being introduced by the European Union, which “is going to demand more requirements that neither Africa nor Latin America currently meet,” stated the superfoods importer. If Latin America can satisfy the sustainability standards, countries like Ecuador, Peru and the Dominican Republic could see their market positions soar; with the help of cocoa beans, they might just climb to new heights in the global cocoa industry.
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