As Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (“AMLO”) approaches the final month of his administration, significant questions loom regarding the potential for constitutional reforms before the transition to Claudia Sheinbaum’s government on 1st October. The period from 1st September to 1st October could be pivotal, with AMLO’s coalition aiming to push through substantial legislative changes, particularly in the judiciary and economic sectors. These reforms carry profound implications for Mexico’s governance and business environment. 

The ruling coalition, comprising MORENA, the Labor Party (“PT”) and the Green Party (“PVEM”), holds a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies, allowing it to amend the Constitution without opposition support. This majority, combined with AMLO’s strong influence, means that significant reforms could be enacted swiftly during this period. “At the beginning of the new legislature, which started on 1st September, a good number of these reforms could be approved,” stated an official coordinating advisors of MORENA’s Parliamentary Group in the Chamber of Deputies. However, the window for passing such reforms is narrow, as the incoming administration may have different priorities or face new political dynamics. 

“All the 20 reforms AMLO proposed will be approved between 1st September and 31st December.” A senior political analyst and congressional expert elaborated, “AMLO is pushing to get the judicial reform voted on before his administration ends.” This reform is one of the most critical items on his agenda and, if passed before 1st October, would be one of the last major legislative acts of AMLO’s administration, setting the stage for Sheinbaum’s government, “who has no margin for mobility in the short and medium term,” confided an internal operator in the Senate of the Republic.  

“All the 20 reforms AMLO proposed will be approved between 1st September and 31st December.”

A senior political analyst and congressional expert, Mexico

The judicial reform stands out due to its far-reaching implications. The reform includes the election of nearly 900 federal judges and Supreme Court justices in 2025, marking a historic shift from appointments to popular vote. It will be one of the largest judicial elections globally, potentially affecting the judiciary’s independence.  

The reform also mandates nine-year terms for judges and introduces stricter criteria for candidates, including a law degree, five years of legal experience and a minimum grade point average. A deputy coordinator of the legislators of the MORENA Parliamentary Group confirmed, “The draft opinion that will be discussed includes more than one hundred changes to the original proposal presented by AMLO, which aim to address legitimate concerns about the autonomy of the Judiciary, legal certainty, among others.” 

Other key reforms include potential changes to energy policy, particularly in favour of state-owned enterprises like Pemex and CFE and infrastructure development. These reforms are designed to enhance state control over strategic sectors, but they have raised concerns about the impact on private investment and the broader economy. A founding member of MORENA boldly stated, “AMLO is so perverse that he put those reforms in the same bag to soften what is the democratic institutional destruction of Mexico.” 

The judicial reform is not only a priority for AMLO but also aligns with Sheinbaum’s vision. Both leaders are committed to combating corruption and strengthening the rule of law, albeit through controversial means. “There is no doubt,” one of MORENA’s links to the Monterrey Group asserted, “It is an agreement between AMLO and Claudia Sheinbaum.” The reform’s emphasis on popular elections for judges reflects a broader populist agenda, aiming to make the judiciary more accountable to the public. However, this approach risks politicising the judiciary, undermining its independence and potentially subjecting it to the whims of electoral politics. 

Mexico ranks 92nd out of 140 in the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, highlighting the country’s struggles with judicial integrity. Proponents of the reform argue that it will address these challenges by reducing corruption and increasing transparency. Critics, however, warn that the reform could lead to a judiciary more susceptible to political pressures and less capable of upholding the law impartially. Indeed, “under the new judicial reform, it would be very difficult for a judge not to agree with the State,” highlighted an expert on the government’s public policies. 

“Under the new judicial reform, it would be very difficult for a judge not to agree with the State.”

Expert on the government’s public policies, Mexico

If the judicial reform is approved in September, it will set a tight timeline for implementation, with the first elections for judges scheduled for June 2025. The rapid transition from appointments to elections could create uncertainties, particularly for the business community. Companies operating in Mexico may face a more unpredictable legal environment, as newly elected judges may lack the experience or independence of their predecessors. 

The reform also poses broader economic risks. It could deter foreign investment and destabilise the market by increasing state control over key sectors. As a former president of the Association of Federal Judges stated, “If the Mexican State fails to have impartial and objective tribunals, international investors withdraw.”  

This month will be pivotal for AMLO’s administration as it races against the clock to push through major constitutional reforms before handing over the reins to Claudia Sheinbaum’s government. The judicial reform, potentially reshaping Mexico’s judiciary, stands front and centre of these efforts.  

As the clock ticks down on AMLO’s presidency, the decisions made in these final weeks will have lasting implications for the country’s governance and economic future. “A work strike remains the most powerful tool in the political and public sphere,” observed a Federal Deputy. With the judges now on strike, AMLO recognises that this is his opportunity to make his move and strike.