For nearly three decades, Eurostar has held an unchallenged position as the sole operator of passenger rail services through the Channel Tunnel. Since its inaugural journey in 1994, the London-Paris route has become synonymous with the Eurostar brand, uniquely positioned as the only high-speed rail link between the UK and mainland Europe. But that era of exclusivity is drawing to a close. 

A new generation of operators - including Virgin Group, Evolyn (a Spanish-led consortium backed by Mobico), FS (the Italian state rail company) and a new entrant, Gemini Trains are preparing to enter the market. Their ambitions begin with the lucrative London-Paris corridor, directly challenging Eurostar’s long-standing dominance. The shift signals a transformation for Europe’s high-speed rail sector, with major implications for infrastructure investors, operators and policymakers alike. 

Two pivotal regulatory developments have opened the door to competition. First, the long-standing requirement that only 400-metre trains could operate through the Channel Tunnel has been lifted. For the first time, regulators have authorised 200-metre units, a move that slashes capital costs and lowers the barrier to entry. This change allows operators to align capacity with demand and reduce upfront risk. 

Secondly, the European Union has formally liberalised cross-border rail services, allowing private and international operators to compete on open-access terms. The Channel Tunnel route - the UK’s most strategic international transport link - is now positioned as a proving ground for this new era of competition. In response, Eurostar has announced plans to invest in 50 new high-speed trains, expanding capacity by 30 percent and modernising its fleet by 2030. 

New entrants, however, see a market ripe for expansion rather than fragmentation. As Adrian Quine, CEO of Gemini Trains, explained, “Our business plan is to grow the market and create modal shift from air to rail rather than to poach passengers from Eurostar. The market is set to grow significantly (300+ percent over the next 15 years according to an independent report).” Today rail is being seen as a sustainable alternative to short-haul flights, powered by environmental awareness and consumer appetite for faster, lower-emission travel.  

“Our business plan is to grow the market and create modal shift from air to rail rather than to poach passengers from Eurostar.”

Gemini Trains CEO, UK

Gemini Trains, one of the most ambitious new entrants, described the opportunity as transformative, “This is a unique opportunity to enter an ‘unreformed’ premium route where there is spare capacity and pent-up demand, and where passenger numbers are set to rocket in the next few years.” With premium positioning and a focus on underserved segments, Gemini aims to fill a gap with competitive pricing and greater service frequency. “Our pricing strategy is to be competitive and to offer more frequency and value, making rail an attractive option for people,” remarked the CEO. This approach mirrors what low-cost carriers achieved in aviation, challenging Eurostar and short-haul airlines alike. 

Importantly, while Virgin, FS/Evolyn, and Gemini may share similar ambitions, they are operating independently. As the head of Gemini clarified, “Virgin and FS/Evolyn are potential competitors, so there is no strategic alliance or JV between us all. Our main competitor is Eurostar and low-cost airlines.” 

While regulatory barriers have eased, infrastructure remains a key constraint, particularly at Temple Mills depot in East London, the only facility in Europe equipped to service high-speed trains on the UK–Europe route, which is already operating at high capacity. “There are various approval processes to go through, but the most immediate and critical is the Office of Rail and Road’s (‘ORR’) determination regarding access to the existing Temple Mills depot, which Eurostar are resisting,” noted a source. In March 2025, ORR published an independent study confirming space for at least one new operator, and a regulatory review is now underway to determine which applicant will be granted access.

Without expanded depot capacity or the construction of new facilities, additional operators cannot realistically launch services at scale. The outcome of the ORR access determination will therefore play a decisive role in how fast competition can materialise. 

Encouragingly, both St Pancras High Speed (“HS1”) and Getlink - the Channel Tunnel operator - are signalling support for market entry. As the Gemini Trains executive observed, “St Pancras High Speed (formerly HS1) and Getlink are both offering time-limited incentives to new entrants to this market.” These incentives may include reduced access charges or preferential terms for early operators, designed to accelerate competitive entry and unlock passenger growth. 

“St Pancras High Speed (formerly HS1) and Getlink are both offering time-limited incentives to new entrants to this market.”

Gemini Trains executive, UK

The case for infrastructure investment is clear. Passenger volumes on the Channel Tunnel route are projected to rise from 19 million annually today to around 30 million within 15 years. With the potential for a 300 percent market expansion, the economic and environmental benefits of shifting short-haul air passengers to high-speed rail are substantial. 

After decades of monopoly, the Channel Tunnel is poised to become one of Europe’s most competitive and innovative transport corridors. As the Gemini CEO concluded, this is “a unique opportunity to enter an unreformed premium route,” and for investors and operators alike, it could soon be full steam ahead.