Latin America may be swinging to the right, but Peru and Colombia offer an important caveat: winning an election is one thing; securing a durable mandate is quite another. Keiko Fujimori took Peru by just 49,641 votes, while Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia by roughly 252,000. Both promise a more pro-business environment, but narrow mandates, fiscal constraints and institutional resistance will determine how much they can deliver. 

In Peru, Fujimori wants more than USD 33 billion of mining investment over five years and is seeking faster approvals and fewer bureaucratic obstacles. “I don’t think there is any reform pending that will significantly affect operating cost capital,” remarked Gonzalo Zegarra, an independent CEOs adviser in Peru. “It’s clear for everybody that the agenda is to facilitate business rather than make it more difficult.” 

The harder question is delivery. Zegarra warned that “the private sector will be expecting from Fujimori’s government much more than they can deliver.” 

Illegal mining is one test. According to Zegarra, the sector has become politically powerful, with links to Congress and political financing, while a temporary regime allowing some operators to continue working is likely to be extended. Tackling it is therefore rather more complicated than issuing another reform decree. 

“The private sector will be expecting from Fujimori’s government much more than they can deliver.” 

Gonzalo Zegarra, independent CEOs adviser in Peru

Fujimori has requested 120-day legislative powers covering taxation and administrative simplification, but Congress is already resisting delegation in mining, hydrocarbons and electricity. Peru may be open for business, but there could still be quite a queue at the permitting desk. 

Zegarra argued that reducing bureaucratic barriers would help attract more US and Chinese capital, although Fujimori has shown “slightly greater alignment with the US government than with China.” 

China nevertheless remains deeply embedded in Peru’s trade, mining and infrastructure, most visibly through COSCO’s Chancay port, where a dispute over the extent of state regulatory oversight is still before the Constitutional Tribunal.  

Zegarra also identified the exchange rate and growth as indicators to watch. He expects the sol to remain relatively stable, while El Niño could weigh on growth through its impact on infrastructure. 

Colombia, on the other hand, faces a different constraint, with very little fiscal room to manoeuvre. 

A current adviser to Colombia’s Congress of the Republic described the country as entering “a phase of adjustment aimed at restoring business confidence after years of confrontation.” Yet the 2027 budget is close to COP 635 trillion (~USD 194.7 billion) and, according to the adviser, around 44 percent rests on borrowing and debt service, sharply limiting spending flexibility. 

This leaves De La Espriella trying to square austerity and lower taxes with an ambitious push for private investment.  

“On mining, oil and gas, I believe the change in direction is absolute,” commented the adviser, pointing to the removal of exploration restrictions and renewed emphasis on contract rounds. 

Public-private partnerships are also returning. A private-sector consultant noted Colombia has “formally returned to the model of large public-private partnerships,” moving away from community-based schemes that struggled to execute major projects. 

Companies should expect “high return potential but a persistent territorial risk premium,” according to the consultant. Energy, logistics and public utilities could benefit early from renewed investment, while regulatory and labour burdens may ease. Security, environmental compliance and community engagement costs, however, are unlikely to follow them down. 

“[Companies should expect] high return potential but a persistent territorial risk premium.”

Private-sector consultant, Colombia

Nearshoring presents another opportunity. The consultant highlighted advanced agribusiness, business process outsourcing (“BPO”), including customer service, finance and back-office operations, software development, intermediate manufacturing and Caribbean port logistics. 

Fujimori has leaned slightly closer to Washington while maintaining commercial ties with China. In Colombia, closer US alignment could support energy, infrastructure and nearshoring, but regulatory convergence may raise compliance requirements in telecommunications, critical-infrastructure tenders and public procurement. Tax, labour and planning reform will also shape operating costs and capital-allocation decisions. 

The more important test may be legal durability. The adviser argued that sophisticated capital should look beyond “an opening-up discourse and international roadshows” and focus on legal stability, governability and macroeconomic discipline. Concessions or mining and energy titles that fail scrutiny by Colombia’s higher courts can become trapped in years of litigation. 

Speeding up projects is useful. Speeding them up so quickly that the courts stop them is rather less so. 

The indicators to watch are therefore not simply investment announcements. In Peru: legislative delivery, bureaucracy, illegal mining, Chancay and El Niño. In Colombia: fiscal discipline, territorial security, constitutional challenges and the revival of PPPs. 

Both governments are trying to accelerate investment and reset the commercial environment, but thin mandates leave little margin for error. Peru and Colombia may have turned right, but neither has much hard shoulder if implementation starts to skid.