Soy created the US plant-based milk market, almond took it mainstream and oat made it fashionable. The next entrant will need rather more than an attractive carton and an interesting nut choice.

US plant-based milk sales fell 2 percent to USD 2.7 billion in 2025, while unit sales declined 5 percent. Yet consumers have hardly abandoned the category: plant-based milk still accounted for 13 percent of milk dollar sales, was bought by 38 percent of US households and retained a 75 percent repeat-purchase rate. Interestingly, 91 percent of those households also bought conventional milk. Consumers, it seems, are quite happy to hedge their bets at breakfast. 

Increasingly, the question is value. Plant-based milk remains more than twice as expensive as conventional milk per gallon, while average prices rose another 2 percent in 2025. The challenge is therefore less about persuading Americans to try alternative milk than convincing them it deserves a permanent place in the weekly shop.  

Nutrition makes that harder. The US Food and Drug Administration noted that only fortified soy beverages are nutritionally similar enough to dairy milk to be included in the dairy group; other alternatives can contain significantly different levels of protein and key nutrients. Meanwhile, lactose-free dairy sales grew 12.4 percent in 2024 and reached one in three US households. Dairy has, udderly inconveniently for the alternative milk market, been innovating too. 

This looks less like a temporary slowdown than a change in how the category grows. A senior executive at a prominent Californian agricultural business observed, “There was quite a rush into plant-based proteins, that obviously caught a lot of attention.” That rush also created crowding. The executive suggested oat, pea and other alternatives have pushed parts of the market towards saturation, while almond retains an early-mover advantage and a durable consumer base, even as newer alternatives have risen and fallen.  

“There was quite a rush into plant-based proteins, that obviously caught a lot of attention.”

A senior executive at a prominent Californian agricultural business

Almond still dominates, accounting for 49 percent of unit sales, while oat holds 21 percent. That scale also brings supply-chain exposure. A senior representative of a leading agricultural trade association remarked, “California supplies around 80 percent of global almonds, with strong demand given almond’s role as a plant-based protein.” Water is another consideration. A senior industry executive highlighted agriculture’s substantial share of California’s water use, while also supplying domestic and global food markets.

The stronger growth signals are appearing elsewhere. Soy, with an 8 percent share, grew 4 percent in dollar terms in 2025, while coconut, at 7 percent of units, rose 27 percent in dollars and 23 percent in volume. Other plant-based varieties account for the remaining 15 percent of unit sales. Higher-protein formulations, lower sugar, fortification and clearer functional benefits offer more promising whitespace than yet another almond or oat proposition. Shelf space is finite and every brand wants to milk it. 

“There’s still room for innovation and continued reformulation, and other products that can come out with the paste and powders over time, the [nut] butters are still popular.” 

A senior agricultural executive

A senior executive at a large farming and food production company agreed, adding that consumer preferences continue to shift towards plant-based, clean-label and premium ingredients. 

Innovation may also move beyond the carton. A senior agricultural executive commented, “There’s still room for innovation and continued reformulation, and other products that can come out with the paste and powders over time, the [nut] butters are still popular.”  

In fact, plant-based creamers returned to growth in 2025, yoghurt grew 7 percent in dollars and ready-to-drink beverages achieved double-digit growth. Foodservice offers another route, with plant-based milk volumes sold through broadline distributors rising 14 percent. The opportunity may be less about winning the milk aisle and more about appearing in several parts of the consumer’s day. 

For investors and established food companies, the next two to three years should look to bring tighter portfolios, more nutrition-led reformulation and greater scrutiny of marginal Stock Keeping Units (“SKUs”). Acquisitions are likely to favour businesses with differentiated health credentials, efficient manufacturing and reach across retail and foodservice. In short, fewer vanity launches and rather more attention to whether anyone is actually buying the product twice.